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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

However the current race is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime strugglers ascending together. During an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this wild and entertaining season, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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