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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd