Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
